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Forecast Discussion for Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 302110
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
210 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonal temperatures along with typical summer breezes are expected
through the middle of the week, although slightly stronger winds are
possible Wednesday. A system brushing by to the north Wednesday
may bring a few showers and thunderstorms to areas near the Oregon
border, but most areas will remain dry through next weekend.
Temperatures may move above normal by Saturday, but only a few
degrees above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Only a few minor changes were made to the forecast for the entire
7-day period this afternoon. Overall...the pattern remains largely
unchanged with a trough of low pressure to our northwest and
ridging over the southwest U.S. That pattern is maintaining a dry
and stable southwest flow over our area. high temperatures range
from the upper 80s to lower 90s in the lower valleys and mid 70s
to lower 80s in the Sierra valleys.
We generally do not expect any convection the next few days...but
it is not out of the question that favored convergence zones from
southern Mono County into southern Lyon and western Mineral
counties could see moderate cumulus build ups and perhaps some
virga each day. Through Tuesday...typical afternoon and evening
breezes are expected along with near normal high temperatures. Low
temperatures will be largely determined by mid/high cloud
presence overnight; more clouds means warmer overnight lows.
Wednesday is starting to become more interesting as model
simulations are falling more in line with the trough to the
northwest dipping farther south. This may provide increased winds
for many areas and could raise some fire weather concerns. Along
with that possibility...the trough could bring enough forcing and
instability to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms north
of a line from Susanville to Gerlach. Very low end POPs were added
to cover that possibility.
Earlier model runs showed an attempt to build the southwest U.S.
ridge back to the west by late in the forecast. While the ECMWF
still shows this...the GFS is now dropping the trough back to the
south a bit. Some ensemble members support that solution. So...we
have largely left the forecast unchanged from Friday onward. If
the ridge builds more the temperatures are likely to surge above
normal next weekend. If not...temperatures will be colder to
normal and we stay dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the next several days with winds
typical for the summer months. Late afternoon and early evening
gusts east of the Sierra could reach 20-25 kts each day through
Tuesday. The presence of a stronger trough of low pressure
Wednesday could produce gusts more in the 25-30 kt range. Winds
should revert to more typical breezes from Thursday through next
weekend. REV
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Reno, NV (REV) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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