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Forecast Discussion for Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 262112
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
212 PM PDT Sun May 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Valley rain showers, mountain snow showers, and a few thunderstorms
will continue into Memorial Day. Snow will likely impact travel
over Sierra passes through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day through the end of the week, but coverage should
be decreased from what we have seen Sunday. A slow warming trend
pushes highs to near normal by the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Little has changed regarding the current forecast reasoning. The
upper low has tracked a little closer to our forecast area...but
still stayed west of the Sierra. That has allowed some dry air to
be drawn into the south and east quadrants of the low resulting in
a lessening of precipitation chances immediately east of the
Sierra.

As the low drops farther south and begins a slow turn to the east
overnight...wraparound moisture and mid- to upper-level forcing
will likely shift the possibility of heavier precipitation to
areas south of Highway 50. So while Mono County has seen little
precipitation east of the crest so far today...that is likely to
change overnight. Thunderstorms are still possible this evening
with the greatest chances south of Highway 50. With more light
snow expected overnight...the winter weather advisories for Mono
County and the Tahoe basin will remain through 5 am Monday.

As the low begins to pull out to the east Monday...gusty north-
northwest winds should develop in the basin and range country. We
will issue a Lake Wind Advisory for that part of the Western
Nevada Basin and Range that includes Pyramid Lake...Lahontan
Reservoir...and Rye Patch Reservoir. Winds should be a little
lighter on Walker Lake...but gusts to 25 mph are possible.

A broad...weakening upper level trough settles over the region
through the bulk of the upcoming week. A series of shortwave
troughs traverse through this broad upper low during the week.
Each is likely to aid in shower and thunderstorm development each
day. The first of these is Monday...then another Tuesday
night/Wednesday...and yet another for Thursday.

Instability parameters in the short term part of the forecast are
at a maximum on Wednesday...and we remain unstable into Thursday.
So Wednesday and Thursday have the potential for the best
convective coverage this coming week.

A longwave ridge remains well west of the area near 140W...but
starts trying to shift east by the end of the forecast. A
shortwave ridge tries to briefly develop along the coast next
week...but we continue to be influenced by the broad trough to
the east. This will keep a mention of showers and thunderstorms in
our forecast through next weekend.

As this first upper low moves away and the region is influenced
only by passing shortwaves through the weakening upper level
trough...we should see our temperatures begin to moderate through
the week. Highs are likely to reach the lower to mid 70s in the
lower valleys by Friday...maybe even warmer by the weekend. Highs
in the Sierra valleys are likely to climb into the upper 60s to
near 70 by Friday. These warming temperatures will set the stage
for the return of increasing snowmelt runoff for next weekend and
beyond. REV

&&

.AVIATION...

A low pressure system dropping into northern California is bringing
showers and thunderstorms to the area. MVFR conditions are possible
at times in heavier showers, especially in Sierra terminals
(KTVL/KTRK). Otherwise, expect periods of rain, mountain
obscurations, and light turbulence.

Thunderstorms are developing in the basin and range. These storms
may produce lightning, gusty winds, and small hail at area terminals
(KHTH, KLOL, KNFL). Winds will weaken later this evening, but
showers will continue overnight. Showers and thunderstorm chances
will return tomorrow afternoon. Cassie

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM PDT Monday NVZ004.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday CAZ072-073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Reno, NV (REV) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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