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Forecast Discussion for Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 191000
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
300 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid-summer heat will prevail through early next week with highs
near 100 degrees for several western Nevada locations. A few
thunderstorms are possible near the Sierra by Saturday afternoon,
with conditions likely becoming more favorable for showers and
thunderstorms starting Sunday and continuing through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Other than removing mention of thunder for Lassen County today,
the current forecast remains intact. Temperatures will remain
above average through the weekend, with Sunday being the overall
warmest with highs near 100 degrees for some valley sites.
Overnight lows will also creep upward toward the end of the
weekend, with some areas remaining above 65 degrees.

Cumulus development was flat over the Lassen and Mineral-Mono
convergence zones yesterday with warm air aloft capping vertical
development. The cap isn`t quite as strong today, but remains
significant enough to prevent any thunderstorm activity, with
no forcing mechanism or upper disturbance present, that could
overcome or sufficiently erode this inhibition to convection.

By Saturday, flow aloft becomes weaker as high pressure ridge
expands across more of the Great Basin. This will help set up
convergence along the Sierra crest, while some mid level cooling
brings some increased instability. Some of the model/ensemble
data sources indicate potential for isolated thunderstorms
developing from mid-late afternoon, favoring Alpine and northern
Mono counties between Ebbetts and Tioga passes, and likely
remaining west of US-395.

Sunday continues to be a day to watch for possible thunderstorms
producing little to no rainfall and erratic gusty winds. With
increased daytime heating and a weak trough near the CA coast,
high based convection potential will increase in the afternoon,
with the main threats being lightning-ignited fires and strong
outflow wind gusts of 50+ mph, even with cells that may look
unimpressive on radar or satellite. An upper disturbance could
keep elevated convection going through Sunday night for parts of
northeast CA to far northwest NV. See the Fire Weather segment
below for additional details/impacts of this weather scenario for
Sunday-Sunday night. MJD

.LONG TERM...Monday onward...

Changes: Added a slight chance of nocturnal thunderstorms Monday
night into Tuesday morning through extreme northeast California
into northern Washoe County and western Pershing County.

The weather pattern may finally be shifting as the Four Corners
high expands westward. The ever present trough that has been
sitting along or just off the west coast, however, isn`t going
anywhere fast. It remains just off the Pacific NW coast, setting
up a rather strong jet for July between these two features the
early part of next week.

So, what does this mean for our weather? Well, first off, we`ll
remain warm with daytime temps near to about 5 degrees above
normal for this time of the year. The warmth will bring increasing
low-level instability, while shortwaves moving around the base of
the trough will increase mid-level instability for northeast
California into Washoe County and Pershing County for the first
part of the week. Moisture is slowly increasing from the south,
with afternoon thunderstorms continuing to be possible, and likely
expanding in coverage through the week. The greater concern is
the nocturnal thunderstorm potential Monday night into early
Tuesday. Forecast soundings are showing mid-level lapse rates
around 8 degrees C/Km with 20-25 kts of wind through the storm
motion layer. This means that any storms that may develop would
have a high likelihood of dry lightning strikes, with definite
concerns for new fire starts should storms develop.

As we continue into the week, moisture does begin to increase
further, with slower storm motions, so the pattern could
transition towards wetter thunderstorms. There is better support
in the ensembles that the ridge will remain the dominant player
in our weather heading into the end of July, which is
climatologically quite typical. A few members, however, do still
try to hold onto the trough near the Pacific Northwest coast, as
has been the pattern for months now. For now, will maintain the
seasonably warm temperatures with the best chances for
thunderstorms mainly south of I-80. This agrees well with CFS
weekly guidance and the CPC outlook as well. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

Typical westerly afternoon breezes will be weaker today as
compared to recent days with peak gusts of 15-20 kts from
approximately 20z-04z. While cumulus is likely to develop today
downwind of Lassen Peak, it appears that the atmosphere will be
too capped for thunderstorms to develop.

As the pattern begins to shift, afternoon thunderstorms become
more likely this weekend into next week. Greatest threats this
weekend will be gusty and erratic outflow winds along with
turbulence due to the convection. By the middle into the end of
next week, lowering CIGS/VIS from locally heavy rain, especially
south of I-80, becomes more likely. The other concern is the
potential for mainly dry nocturnal storms Sunday night and Monday
night in northeast CA and portions of western Nevada.

For this weekend:

Saturday: 15% chance of a thunderstorm to develop Mono/Alpine
Counties.

Sunday: 15-20% chance for storms from KMMH northward from
approximately US-395 to US-95. -Dawn

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Our pattern looks to be shifting, with increasing chances for
thunderstorms for the second half of the weekend into next week.
Initially the greatest threat will be gusty and erratic outflow
winds and storms will very little rainfall. Pay special attention
to the nocturnal thunderstorm potential Sunday and Monday nights
in northeast California into western Nevada (mainly northern
Washoe County into western Pershing County). These fast-moving
storms could easily bring dry lightning and spark new wildfires
should they develop. As we transition into the middle and end of
next week, storms are likely to become wetter with the greatest
threat from approximately I-80 south. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Reno, NV (REV) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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