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Forecast Discussion for Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 161011
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
211 AM PST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will lead to dry and stagnant conditions under valley
inversions through the weekend. A pattern change mid to late next
week will open the door for a couple modest systems with light to
moderate precipitation amounts possible. With periods of snow in
the Sierra, travel impacts are likely at times over the Thanksgiving
holiday weekend although it is too soon to nail down details.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Benign weather conditions persist under an amplified ridge
centered off the California coast. Static stability will remain
high keeping valley inversions the primary weather feature
through early Saturday; poor mixing and slightly degraded air
quality continue to be the results of these persistent
inversions. A weak, dry surface boundary is expected to move
through the region Saturday which will increase easterly ridge
winds by Saturday night. While this will weaken surface
inversions, there is not much to suggest that they might actually
break through the weekend. Boyd

.LONG TERM...Monday onward...

The main changes to the forecast were to nudge pops and qpf upward
for the end of the week into the weekend as there is increasing
model agreement.

The long-awaited pattern change looks to finally take shape next
week, however exact timing and details remain unclear. Early in
the week we remain under the influence of the ridge with
inversions in place keeping similar temperatures in western Nevada
valleys and Sierra valleys and winds light.

A weak wave moving into southern CA Tuesday isn`t expected to bring
any precipitation, but does help to weaken the ridge and set the
stage for the next system upstream to move onshore. There is better
model agreement on this first wave arriving Wednesday into
Thanksgiving Day. Jet placement would suggest this initial storm
will be of the weaker variety and have an increased risk of
splitting. What does this mean for the eastern Sierra and western
Nevada? Well, we are likely to see chances for mountain snow and
valley rain, but it`s unlikely to be a major storm.

Don`t give up hope, there is another possible storm on the heels of
this one for the weekend after Thanksgiving which could tap into a
better Pacific moisture. There are still timing and positional
changes in operational models and their ensembles, so confidence
remains low in the exact details. If this storm does come to
fruition across the eastern Sierra and western Nevada it could
affect travel the weekend after Thanksgiving, especially for
those planning on being in the Sierra. -Dawn

&&

.AVIATION...

Continued VFR conditions with light winds as the region remains
under the influence of a strong ridge. Minor slantwise visibility
reductions are possible due to haze trapped under valley inversions.
Smoke from wildfires in California will mainly remain west of the
Sierra crest, with the best chances for smoke encroachment to be
into northeast California. -Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Reno, NV (REV) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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