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Forecast Discussion for Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 221003
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
303 AM PDT Fri Mar 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The next storm moves in today bringing light snow accumulations
down to 5000 feet by Saturday morning. After a brief break on
Sunday, another storm is possible by Monday with gusty winds,
valley rain, and mountain snow heading into the middle of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday Night...
Main updates this forecast cycle were to increase the precipitation
amounts and chances for western Nevada Saturday morning with the
incoming storm starting this afternoon. Snow levels were also looked
at closely for Saturday morning as model soundings were showing the
potential for snow down to valley floors.

After a chilly and quiet start to this Friday morning, the next
storm moves into the region this afternoon. Relatively light showers
could start my midday today, but travel impacts due to snow likely
won`t begin until after sunset today. Rain and snow will still
create slick driving conditions starting late this afternoon, so be
sure to check road conditions before you head out.

The coldest air will work its way into the region early Saturday
morning, with snow levels dropping to near valley floors by sunrise
on Saturday. While there may be some light snow in western Nevada on
Saturday and more moderate snowfall in the Sierra, the bulk of the
precipitation will occur during the day and likely limit snow
accumulations on road surfaces. Plan for light accumulations in the
foothills of western Nevada, including Virginia City and the
Highlands by Saturday morning. Sierra travel will also likely be
impacted by higher snow amounts Saturday morning, but with the high
sun angle the road conditions will likely improve later in the day.

The storm barrels through by Saturday afternoon which will really
limit liquid totals along the Sierra crest to around 0.75".
Simulations as well as model soundings are showing efficient
spillover into western Nevada for Saturday so anywhere between 0.10"-
0.3" of liquid totals will be possible and make for a wet and gloomy
Saturday.

Shortwave ridging will give us a short break Saturday night into
Sunday. Sunday will likely be the best day to prepare for the stormy
week ahead or to just get out and enjoy the weather. -Edan


.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

The storm for the middle of the week still looks good and the
models/ensembles continue to hit Tuesday night through Wednesday
night the hardest. That said, it is not a huge storm by Sierra
standards (or compared to what we`ve seen over the winter), but a
solid one and stronger than your typical late March storm. The
ensembles are in good agreement with this storm so confidence is
higher than normal for late March.

Monday into Tuesday, there is an initial short wave that will push
the front toward I-80 before stalling. The moisture with it is
shallowing as it moves in, but there could be some decent precip
amounts Monday before it falls apart. There is still some
uncertainty as to how wet, so anywhere from a quarter inch to an
inch of water is possible I-80 north in the Sierra. Snow levels
look to be near 6000-7000 feet.

A bit of a break is likely Monday night into Tuesday, but some
shallow light showers are possible along the front into the Sierra.
The main part of the storm will move through late Tuesday night into
Wednesday evening with a potent cold front. QPF amounts with this
portion could be 2+ inches in the Sierra with lighter amounts into
western Nevada. Snow levels will start 5500-6500 feet north to south
before falling to near 4000 feet behind the front Wednesday night.
A good bout of snow is expected, especially above 7000 feet.

As for spillover, we will see at least some since the front is
dynamic and the stability is weak. Whether it is just a 2-3 hour
burst along the front or something longer will become clearer in the
coming days. Anywhere from a few hundredths to 1/2 inch of rain
could fall.

Behind the front Thursday, it will be cold with more showers into
the Sierra as yet another short wave moves through. There will be
enough instability for snow/pellet showers into western Nevada.
Drier, but continued below normal temperatures are possible Friday
behind the system. X

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR today with increasing mid and high clouds through the day. After
00Z, CIGs will drop to near 4000 feet in the Sierra, but remain near
10,000 feet to the east. -RA/SN are expected tonight with the
biggest impacts around KTRK/KTVL and lesser for the other terminals.
Winds aloft are only about 20-25 kts at ridge level so we are not
expecting any significant winds or LLWS. Some light mtn wave
turbulence is likely. Precip details for each terminal below:

KTVL/KTRK: Expect MVFR CIGS/VIS after 02Z in -RASN, then becoming
IFR after 06Z as snow levels lower and it becomes all SN. Conditions
are likely to be below airfield minimums for a few hours, with
improving conditions after 12-15Z Saturday. Runway accumulations of
a wet 1-3 inches are likely.

KRNO/KCXP: Primarily VFR with CIGs lowering to 4-5000 feet at precip
moves in after 06Z. -RA is expected with CIGs lowering to 2500-3000
feet at times in any heavier bursts from 08-13Z. Improving conditions
after 14Z.

KMMH: VFR through 07Z with CIGs gradually lowering to 4-5000 feet
with some mtn obscuration. After 09Z MVFR CIGS expected with periods
of -SHSN through 16Z. Any runway accumulation is expected to be
light, around an inch. X

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Reno, NV (REV) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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