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Forecast Discussion for Reno, NV

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072
FXUS65 KREV 272118
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
218 PM PDT Sun Sep 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

Northeasterly winds will continue to keep smoke out of the region
through at least early Tuesday. An area of high pressure will build
into the Great Basin leading to warming temperatures and dry
conditions through at least next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

With a pretty locked-in warm and dry pattern this week, not many
changes were made to the forecast - just some slight adjustments
to winds and temperatures throughout the week.

Breezy northeast winds will continue to bring relief from the smoke
and haze that has been troubling our region for quite some time.
This wind pattern will prevail through early Tuesday, keeping the
smoke and haze from the nearby Creek and North Complex wildfires
west of the Sierra crest. There are a couple of concerns from these
northeasterly winds, however. One is choppy lake conditions across
Lake Tahoe this afternoon and Monday afternoon, although winds will
remain below Lake Wind Advisory criteria. The other concern is the
potential for prolonged critical fire weather conditions west of the
Sierra crest into the western foothills and the Sacramento valley
into Monday. For more information, please see the Red Flag Warning
issued by NWS Sacramento. We will also see a brief period of near-
critical conditions in the northern portion of Lassen County and
in the Surprise Valley this afternoon and Monday afternoon, as
wind gusts increase to 20-30 mph and humidities lower into the
12-17% range.

Light west-southwest winds look to return Tuesday afternoon as the
ridge of high pressure builds into the Great Basin. These winds
could shift the direction of smoke plumes and resultant haze back
toward our region, depending upon wildfire activity over the next 24-
48 hours. We should have a better idea of this Monday as smoke model
runs will begin to forecast the Tuesday afternoon period.

Temperatures will remain just above normal through Monday before a
ridge builds into the Great Basin through the remainder of the week.
This ridge and resulting subsidence will increase temperatures to 10-
15 degrees above average for this time of year. We can expect mid-to-
upper 80s for western Nevada valleys and 70s to mid-80s in Sierra
valley locations through next weekend. The longer late September and
early October nights will allow for excellent nocturnal radiational
cooling. Morning lows are expected to be in the 40s and lower 50s
for western Nevada valleys and 30s to low 40s expected in the
Sierra this week. Some frosts could be possible in the colder
locations of the Sierra and northeastern California.

Dry and warm conditions look to continue into the second week of
October as an omega block occurs from the central Pacific Ocean
across the United States. There may be some relief in sight from
this dry weather in the extended period as long term deterministic
and ensemble guidance are hinting at an area of low pressure
breaking this blocking pattern by October 10-15. Stay tuned! -Johnston

&&

.AVIATION...

Northeasterly winds behind a weak cold front have pushed the smoke
and haze from the Creek and North Complex wildfires west of the
Sierra crest. This has given way to VFR conditions region-wide
with prevailing visibility greater than six statute miles at all
area terminals. These flight conditions will remain through at
least Monday evening. A shift in winds from the west-southwest
Tuesday may bring smoke and haze back to portions of eastern
California and western Nevada.

Mountain wave turbulence is likely along and west of the Sierra and
southern Cascade crests as gusty northeast winds persist into late
Monday afternoon. Light winds, along with warm and dry conditions
will prevail this week. -Johnston

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Reno, NV (REV) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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