FXUS65 KREV 180930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
230 AM PDT Thu Oct 18 2018


A quiet and sunny weather pattern will be in place through the
weekend as high pressure strengthens over the region. Light winds,
mild afternoons, and chilly mornings will continue. The forecast
remains dry with no signals for significant precipitation until
the middle of next week where there are some indications of a
pattern shift to a more unsettled, wetter scenario.



A ridge of high pressure centered off the West Coast will build over
the Pacific Northwest into the weekend. Meanwhile, weak low pressure
aloft will hang out over the southern half of California and Nevada.
As far as weather under this setup, it will remain dry with little
moisture for appreciable cloudiness. Temperatures will remain a bit
above average for afternoons, with valley lows bottoming out near
average (mainly in the 20s and 30s). Ridges and mid slopes will be
generally a bit warmer with lows in the 30s and 40s.

With the ridge and trough setup mentioned above, the only thing of
some note regarding winds will be modest easterly flow over ridges.
Valleys can expect light overnight and morning winds through Saturday,
with some north to east winds (up to 10 mph) in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Sunday onward...

No major changes were made to the ongoing forecast with two main
features standing out in the longer range forecast period: Showers
forming from the low that was over southern CA lifting north on
Monday and a pattern change across the Pacific leading to wet
weather reaching the northwest coast the middle to end of next

As the low lifts north and east, it advects moisture northward on
Monday. The GFS continues to be the most aggressive in bringing
precipitation from central to eastern Nevada, while the EC draws the
moisture into Utah, almost missing Nevada completely, and is not as
wet. Will keep slight chances for showers across southern Mono/Mineral
Counties into far eastern Churchill County, but anticipate better
chances eastward.

We are still looking at a shift in the pattern across the Pacific
next week with a strengthening and more zonal Pacific jet allowing
systems to reach the northwest coast. Atmospheric river integrated
water vapor transport plume ensembles continue to indicate increasing
chances for a weak to moderate AR to move into the PacNW for the
middle to end of next week. The southern extent of the ensembles
reach into northern California, which leads us to having better
confidence in chances for rain in northeast CA and extreme northern
NV. However, it will also limit how much QPF falls in even these
areas as the bulk of the moisture and dynamics stay north. What
also will come into play is how far south an area of low pressure
in the northeast Pacific and the associated jet stream make it.
The EC has been consistently farther south while the GFS has been
bouncing around for several days now. For now, will maintain
chances for precipitation for areas mainly north of I-80 for the
middle of next week with temperatures near normal. -Dawn



VFR conditions and light easterly surface winds are expected through
the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There will be a
slight increase in east to southeast winds across ridgelines the end
of the week into the weekend with gusts to 35 mph. Skies to remain
mostly clear through Saturday with an increase in mid and high level
clouds in the eastern Sierra into central and eastern Nevada Sunday.


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