FXUS65 KREV 230931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
231 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2017


High pressure will bring much above average temperatures through
the weekend, with some cooling by early next week. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible through Saturday near the Sierra,
spreading into parts of western Nevada Sunday. Dry and breezy
conditions are expected early next week. Flooding will continue
for the creeks in Mono County and portions of the Walker River.



For today and Saturday, a ridge axis settles over the Sierra and
western Nevada with temperatures in the lower valleys rising to
near the century mark by Saturday. Mid-level temperatures do not
change much, and unlike yesterday when east flow across the Sierra
kept all convection west of the crest, a slight west-northwest
push is expected off the Sierra. This could lead to a few
afternoon and early evening thunderstorms forming near the Sierra
south of US-50 and into Alpine and Mono counties today. With
additional heating on Saturday, the threat for isolated storms may
expand slightly northward to near south shores of Tahoe, and
eastward across far southern portions of Douglas, Lyon and Mineral

Sunday is expected to bring the hottest day with highs near or
above 100 degrees in most lower elevations, and an increase in
thunderstorm coverage as a modest upper disturbance moves over
northern California and far western Nevada. We area currently
highlighting two areas with more favorable thunderstorm
potential--the first is north of Susanville-Gerlach to the Oregon
border, and the second is from central Lyon-eastern Douglas
counties (south of US-50) into eastern Mono-western Mineral
counties. These areas are located in typical convergence zones
which are projected to set up during the afternoon. Due to
potential interactions with outflow boundaries and a weak late
day zephyr, we generally kept a risk of isolated convection to
nearly all areas west of US-95, with some cells possibly lasting
through the late evening. MJD

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

No big changes to drier and breezy conditions setting up for Mon-Tue
as trough swings through the Great Basin. Monday still appears to be
the breezier day as thermal trough will be stronger across the
eastern Sierra/western NV. Temperatures will also cool by Tue-Wed,
possibly into the upper 70s Sierra valleys to low-mid 90s in western
NV valleys. There are some model differences later in the week but
it appears that temperatures will begin to warm up again. How fast
and how much depends on the model. Hohmann



VFR conditions with light northeast to east flow. Thunderstorms
today and Saturday will remain isolated and mainly along the eastern
Sierra south of Lake Tahoe. Thunderstorm chances increase a bit and
spread north Sunday as temperatures increase to well above normal.



Well above average temperatures will continue through the weekend
with isolated thunderstorms along the Sierra spreading north on
Sunday. Critical fire weather conditions are probable next Monday
and/or Tuesday as a low pressure system approaching the west
coast brings increasing winds--especially if fires start from
Sunday`s thunderstorm activity.

Thunderstorms will mostly be confined to the high terrain of the
eastern Sierra of Mono/Alpine Counties today and potentially
spreading into the Tahoe basin Saturday. Sunday will be the day
to watch for thunderstorms as chances increase throughout the
region. High storm bases and storm motions around 20 kts will
increase the chances of lightning strikes outside of rain cores.
Very dry low levels will also create the potential for erratic
wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. A trough approaching the west
coast will draw in very dry air along with an increase in winds
starting Monday. Hohmann



Rapid snowmelt from the remaining deep high elevation snowpackwill
bedrivenbyhot days and warm nights.Expect continuedvery high
flows at least throughSundaynight on creeks and streams draining
high elevation terrain near the Sierra Crest, as well as creeks
draining the eastern and northeastern flanks of Mt. Rose. This
includes the forks of the Walker River, other creeks and streams in
Mono County, Galena Creek, and neighboring creeks in the Mt. Rose

Peak nighttime flows throughSundaynight are likely to be similar
to observed peaks over the last three nights. A combination of
slightly cooler temperatures and depleting snow covered
contributing area should lead to gradually decreasing flows
starting early next week.

Preliminary measurements of snowmelt flows on the West Walker above
and below Topaz reservoir have exceeded the previous snowmelt peak
flow of 1995 and that water is slowly moving into and through the
Mason Valley. Fortunately this year at this time, the East
Walker is contributing significantly less water than it was during
the peak of 1995. The combination should lead to flows and
impacts in the Mason Valley and downstream similar to or slightly
less than from the peak flows of mid-July 1995.


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